HSBC: Our base scenario for the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) is to reduce interest rates to 30% by October.

Foreks stated that HSBC's baseline scenario for the Central Bank of Turkey (TCMB) involves a reduction of 250 basis points at each meeting until October, bringing the rate down to 30%. The bank emphasized that recent actions indicate risks are leaning towards a slower pace of easing.

In its assessment, the bank noted, "Before the political developments this week, we were forecasting March inflation at 2.3% monthly, 37.8% annually, and a year-end inflation rate of 30%. While we are not making any changes for now, considering the recent depreciation of the Turkish lira, there are upward risks to these figures." The note concluded, "Our basic scenario for monetary policy suggests a 250 basis point reduction at each Monetary Policy Committee meeting until the policy rate reaches 30% in October. However, recent steps from the central bank indicate a shift towards a more gradual easing pace."